Let's Talk TN +8 vs GA -8

[Hotpizza]

Rather than this get lost in a top 25 poll thread, I'm starting this one and putting my comments from that thread into this one.


The public at first glance will see #2 Tennessee getting 8 to 8.5 points and think no way the #2 team should get that much. Right now 89% of the tickets and 59% of the money is on Tennessee and it's a lot of public money at this point. Yet the line has dropped from the opener at 8.5 down to 8. That tells you the wiseguys/sharps are on Georgia early on but that can change.

Looking at some power ratings Sagarin has GA by 7, Powers by 11.9 and Lawrence by 14.5

Note that Sagarin only gives 1.8 for HF, Lawrence is giving GA 6 pt cushion for HF and Powers doesn't indicate a HF value so Sagarin's 1.8 was applied but it's likely that Lawrence 6 is more accurate than a coverall of 1.8.

Personally I'd love to see TN win and cause total chaos for the playoffs at worse if they lose a close one, they don't drop much. Unless it's a total blow out either way, neither team is going to drop far as the loser.

Are you putting Michigan, Clemson, TCU or Alabama ahead of a 1 loss GA or TN?

No need to answer, it's NO and it's not even close.

 

[exploited17]

If TCU, Michigan or Clemson is undefeated you have no choice

 

[Avocado33]

If TCU, Michigan or Clemson is undefeated you have no choice

Yup. If TCU and Clemson finish undefeated then only 1 SEC team I think

Georgia -8 for me but I slightly hope I'm wrong for the sport's sake

 

[Hotpizza]

If TCU, Michigan or Clemson is undefeated you have no choice

The problem with Clemson is that their SOS isn't good and what would be their two or three marquee wins of the season? They do have Notre Dame next but they are down this year and then Louisville at home after that. I don't look at that as a marquee game. The luster is off Wake Forest and NC St not those are games any team top caliber would lay their hat on.

Michigan SOS is in the same boat, the only difference is they have Illinois and Ohio St left to play and at least Ohio State would be the marquee win and likely over #2 if things hold serve.

TCU going undefeated is going to be a tall task but the next three weeks will clear things up with Texas Tech, Texas and Baylor with the last two of those on the road.

At least with Tennessee you have LSU. Alabama, and a close game with Georgia to hang your hat on.

Georgia on the other hand at only has Oregon and then the Tennessee game. Georgia outside of those two games has beaten nobody of value this year. Samford, South Carolina, Kent St, Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Florida. Those teams certainly don't scare anyone off.

If Georgia loses, they would be the team that would/should get passed over IF any of those other teams run the table.

 

[Avocado33]

The problem with Clemson is that their SOS isn't good and what would be their two or three marquee wins of the season? They do have Notre Dame next but they are down this year and then Louisville at home after that. I don't look at that as a marquee game. The luster is off Wake Forest and NC St not those are games any team top caliber would lay their hat on.

Michigan SOS is in the same boat, the only difference is they have Illinois and Ohio St left to play and at least Ohio State would be the marquee win and likely over #2 if things hold serve.

TCU going undefeated is going to be a tall task but the next three weeks will clear things up with Texas Tech, Texas and Baylor with the last two of those on the road.

At least with Tennessee you have LSU. Alabama, and a close game with Georgia to hang your hat on.

Georgia on the other hand at only has Oregon and then the Tennessee game. Georgia outside of those two games has beaten nobody of value this year. Samford, South Carolina, Kent St, Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Florida. Those teams certainly don't scare anyone off.

If Georgia loses, they would be the team that would/should get passed over IF any of those other teams run the table.

All valid points

But I don't see how an undefeated P5 conference champ gets left out

Only 3 P5 conference champions have been left out with 1 loss since the playoff's inception -- two of those in the first year and then Ohio State in 2018.

Three non-champ 1 loss teams have been selected plus Notre Dame, so there's at least precedent for that. But each time they got in over two-loss P5 champions

A 1-loss non champ has never made it over a 1-loss P5 champ, let alone an undefeated one

 

[chrishansen]

This hopefully is a fun game and a good one. Give the fans what they want! Bama vs Tenn all over again in the hedges of UGA.

I don’t think anything can be public money on a Sunday. That comes Friday and Saturday imo. If the ole wise guy sharp money is true then they are on the Vols. If the wise guys were so sharp as we say, then they would be wise to bet later in the week. Since the so called public money is pouring in on Vols the line is and will drop right? I mean if it’s obvious to us public money is in on Vols 6 days in advance, then wise guys probably aren’t betting uga now. I’d imagine they sit back watching the line drop a bit.

The line is just an algorithm. Computer spits out the number. It’s very accurate sometimes and very wrong sometimes. Just the probability over circumstances. It doesn’t calculate certain independent and dependent variables

Who cares what the line is. The question is what do you make the line? If the line came out -26 UGA do you bet UGA off the line is too high Vegas knows something? Or do you say give me the 26 lol. I could not argue if someone thought UGA -13.5 or UGA -3.5. It’s just an opinion someone may have.

UGA is always a tough out at home. Kent scored 20+ on them and they squeak by in Missouri. But let’s be real, was UGA really ready to play those games? Ehhh bit of a go through motions. Obviously they will be fired up vs Vols. But usually in these situations the home team comes out hot. Blows its wad and entertaining the second half comes out flat. Visiting team crawl back in it. A lot of emotion gets sucked out early in these type games and it swings second half. Good example Tennessee vs Bama was all Vols. UGA vs Gators 28-3 half. Then it’s a 28-20 3rd and Tennessee game Bama was back in it till the end.

Uga like Bama does have issues vs teams that play quick and have more mobile run QB. Saban was the one who called for change in the game after Utah pulled that break neck pace and embarrassed them in that Sugar bowl. Still been a bit of an issue for his D over the years. UGA falls under the same tree

UGA should try and run all over them. Vols D is a bit leaky. Vols Offense is running high octane though. It’s always hard to predict game flow. I’ll go with a slower first half UGA D controls Vols and UGA O stays a bit conservative. Maybe we see a 17-9 type half. Then second half heats up for wild scoring. Hell who knows. But I’d imagine both teams get aggressive on a few plays some trickery or something.

Vols ML for me! Too good of a game not to have some fun with. So may as well go with the juicy Dog. And hope for a good game. Easier to enjoy the game also. Instead of sweating out 8- either way.

UGA 1st half
Tenn 2nd half
Vols ML

Vols 33
Dogs 30

 

[chrishansen]

Yup. If TCU and Clemson finish undefeated then only 1 SEC team I think

Georgia -8 for me but I slightly hope I'm wrong for the sport's sake

I think TCU is going to take a L soon. They have been riding some drama and lucky karma comebacks for 5 weeks really. The big 12 is notorious for weird stuff. TT May be the soul crushers this week. Feel like over the years outside of Sooners a few Big 12 teams have let it slip late on a fluke game.

Clemson I believe gets in. I hear the argument the SOS. But same can be said in Big 10 country. Irish on deck but Irish aren’t good I hear. So a 6 point win at ND will be yeah but ND is down. Yet OSU beat them at home by a few and it’s a great win. The other side of the ACC is horrible. UNC will play Clemson. Clemson side is actually pretty good teams. Cuse WFU FSU NCSU Louisville all respectable. I don’t see much difference in them as the Big 10 especially the West bracket.

Be fun to see a little Shake up. TCU Clemson Michigan Tennessee maybe. But they sure do love making cases for their babies OSU USC Texas UGA Bama Oklahoma type teams if they are ever in the question. All about the money

 

[Avocado33]

I think TCU is going to take a L soon. They have been riding some drama and lucky karma comebacks for 5 weeks really. The big 12 is notorious for weird stuff. TT May be the soul crushers this week. Feel like over the years outside of Sooners a few Big 12 teams have let it slip late on a fluke game.

Clemson I believe gets in. I hear the argument the SOS. But same can be said in Big 10 country. Irish on deck but Irish aren’t good I hear. So a 6 point win at ND will be yeah but ND is down. Yet OSU beat them at home by a few and it’s a great win. The other side of the ACC is horrible. UNC will play Clemson. Clemson side is actually pretty good teams. Cuse WFU FSU NCSU Louisville all respectable. I don’t see much difference in them as the Big 10 especially the West bracket.

Be fun to see a little Shake up. TCU Clemson Michigan Tennessee maybe. But they sure do love making cases for their babies OSU USC Texas UGA Bama Oklahoma type teams if they are ever in the question. All about the money

Random kind of but what do you think Michigan/Ohio State line will be, assuming both are undefeated ?

 

[chrishansen]

Random kind of but what do you think Michigan/Ohio State line will be, assuming both are undefeated ?

I’ll toss out 8.5 62 off top my head if guessing. I’ll give couple points OSU at home. Probably project OSU at 34 and Michigan 27. Injuries weather etc obviously can swing stuff

 

[chrishansen]

Random kind of but what do you think Michigan/Ohio State line will be, assuming both are undefeated ?

You can probably deep dive into teams stats and get a better feel. Just do team ppg vs team opp ppg. Find the median and add em up. Then go back and eliminate the crap games like Hawaii vs Michigan etc and throw those padded stats out. And whatever OSU games you consider who cares games. Then do the same for the stats. Add em all up divide it and see what differences pop off.

I’m not a stats guy football. But if you do it for say Ten vs Uga this week it probably spits out close to the line. I’m sure they have algorithms that factor in smaller equations etc. Pace, Play per game, Rush vs Pass yards. Teaser protection numbers etc.


Ten vs UGA

48x12 60/2 30 points
43x21 64/2 32 points

UGA -2 add 2-3 HF
UGA -4 UGA -5
Total 63

Eliminating BS games each team (3) Ten (2) UGA
41x12 53/2 27 points
44x21 65/2 33 points

UGA -6 add 2-3 HF
UGA -8.5 Uga -9.5
Total 61

Combined Median
30x27 57/2 29 points
32x33 65/2 33 points

UGA -4 add 2-3 HF
UGA -6.5
Total 63

End of the day you never know how the ball bounces. So it’s just numbers and probably etc. Not my cup of tea for football

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[Greenbacks]

3:30 game
Should be a prime time game under the lights

 

[HacheMan]

Georgia/Tennessee game of the year so far in all sports

 

[Hotpizza]

Line has creeped up to GA -9 and Bookmaker now has them -9.5

One train of thought I've been contemplating is rather than take the points or the ML with TN, I'm thinking about a future bet to win the title. I saw +1200 at Fan Duel and will see if I can find something higher.

 

[Greenbacks]

8.5 at both betonline and FanDuel
Good luck ?

 

[Avocado33]

Georgia/Tennessee game of the year so far in all sports

Hope it lives up to the hype

Think it’s 34-24 Georgia or thereabouts

 

[CHOPTALK]

Tennessee is gonna cover because I said so

 

[Hotpizza]

A lot of back and forth on this line as it's back to -8 to -8.5

 

[HacheMan]

I think Georgia beats them by 2 touchdowns minimum

 

[peanuts]

If Tennessee beats Georgia, Tennessee can beat anybody.